Martingale vs Paroli: 200,000 simulated roulette sessions
Martingale and Paroli compared with real numbers: 100,000 simulated sessions each on a single zero wheel. Win rates, bust rates, worst sessions, and why neither beats the house edge.
The two systems in one breath
Martingale: The Martingale doubles the stake after every loss and resets to the starting stake after every win. The idea is that one win recovers every loss in the run and adds one unit of profit on top.
Paroli: The Paroli is the Martingale turned around. You double the stake after a win and reset to the base stake after a loss, aiming to ride a short hot streak with the table money rather than your own.
The numbers side by side
| Martingale | Paroli | |
|---|---|---|
| Sessions that finished ahead | 49.2% | 38.4% |
| Sessions that ran out of money | 50.1% | 0.0% |
| Average result per session | -31.1 points | -22.9 points |
| Typical (median) result | -185 points | -25 points |
| Worst session seen | -500 points | -350 points |
| Average total staked | 1,159.7 points | 843.6 points |
| Loss predicted by the edge | 31.3 points | 22.8 points |
The honest verdict
Neither system beats the house edge, and the table shows it twice. Each system's average loss sits next to the loss the edge predicts from its own staking (31.3 points for Martingale, 22.8 points for Paroli): the wheel took its 1 in 37 of everything each system staked, and nothing more or less.
What actually differs is the shape of the risk. Martingale finished ahead more often (49.2% against 38.4%). Martingale emptied its bankroll more often (50.1% against 0.0%). Paroli lost less on average (-22.9 points against -31.1 points), mostly because it staked less in total. Choosing between them is choosing which kind of bad day you prefer, not which one wins.
Common questions
Which is better, Martingale or Paroli?
Neither, by expectation: both averaged a loss in line with the house edge applied to what they staked (-31.1 points against -22.9 points per session). They differ in risk shape. Martingale finished ahead more often (49.2% against 38.4%), while Martingale ran out of money more often (50.1% against 0.0%). Pick, if at all, by which bad day you would rather have.
Can I combine two systems to beat the wheel?
No. Any mix of two systems is still a sequence of bets on a wheel that keeps 1 point in 37 staked, so the combination changes the shape of your results, never their long run average. That is exactly what our side by side numbers show for each system alone.
Run both yourself
The Lab in the app runs either system with your own budget, base bet, and rounds, on virtual points. Watch each one's bad day happen instead of taking our word for it.