Does the Martingale work? 100,000 roulette sessions tested
The Martingale doubles the stake after every loss. We simulated 100,000 sessions on a single zero wheel to show its real win rate, how often it wipes out the bankroll, and why doubling up cannot beat the house edge.
At a glance, from 100,000 simulated sessions
- Finished ahead
- 49.2%
- Ran out of points
- 50.1%
- Average result
- -31.1 points
What it is and how it works
The Martingale doubles the stake after every loss and resets to the starting stake after every win. The idea is that one win recovers every loss in the run and adds one unit of profit on top.
The arithmetic of that claim is correct. The problem is not the arithmetic, it is that the doubling runs into the size of your bankroll long before the wheel runs out of losing streaks.
A simple example at a base bet of 5
- Bet 5 on red. It loses. You are 5 down.
- Bet 10. It loses. You are 15 down.
- Bet 20. It loses. You are 35 down.
- Bet 40. It wins, returning 80. You are 5 ahead, having staked 75 to get there.
To see the risk with your own numbers, the Martingale calculator works out the stake ladder, the losing run that ends the session and the exact chance of meeting it, for any bankroll, base bet, table limit and number of spins.
What our simulation shows
We ran 100,000 sessions of this system against a fair single zero wheel, each session lasting up to 100 spins, starting with 500 virtual points and a base bet of 5. Those are the amounts the app's Strategy Simulator tab starts with; there a run has no round limit, and goes on until you stop it, the points set aside run out or the table refuses its next bet. A session here ends early if the bankroll can no longer cover the next required bet.
| Sessions simulated | 100,000 |
|---|---|
| Sessions that finished ahead | 49.2% |
| Sessions that finished level | 0.0% |
| Sessions that finished behind | 50.8% |
| Sessions that ran out of points | 50.1% |
| Average result per session | -31.1 points |
| Typical (median) result | -185 points |
| Average total staked in a session | 1,159.7 points |
| Loss predicted by the house edge | 31.3 points |
| Best session seen | +350 points |
| Worst session seen | -500 points |
| Average longest run of losing spins | 5.5 |
| Longest run of losing spins seen | 7 |
Read that table slowly. The share of sessions finishing ahead is often the number that sells a system, and on its own it is misleading: what matters is the average result, which includes the sessions that went badly.
Why this system cannot overcome the house edge
A single zero wheel has 37 pockets. An even money bet such as red wins on 18 of them and loses on 19, so every point you stake returns 36 of 37 points on average. That is a loss of 2.7027% of everything staked, and it applies to every single bet no matter what size it is or what order the bets come in.
Our simulation shows this directly. Across 100,000 sessions this system staked an average of 1,159.7 points per session. Applying the edge to that amount predicts a loss of 31.3 points. The simulation actually produced an average of -31.1 points.
The staking pattern changed how the wins and losses were spread out. It did not change the total. That is the whole story of every betting system: they move risk around, and nothing more.
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
- It wins a large share of short sessions, which is exactly why it feels convincing.
- The rule is simple to follow and needs no notes or counting.
Weaknesses
- The stake doubles frighteningly fast: eight losses in a row from a stake of 5 needs 1,280 on the next bet.
- A single long losing run takes back a long series of small wins and then some.
- Table maximums and a finite bankroll both cut the progression off exactly when you need it to continue.
Who it might suit
The Martingale suits players who enjoy a high chance of finishing a short session slightly ahead and who fully accept that the rare losing session is very large. It is a way of reshaping the distribution of results, not of improving them.
Common questions
Does the Martingale system actually work?
It works exactly as described until the bankroll or the table limit stops the doubling, and then it fails badly. In our 100,000 session simulation the bankroll was wiped out often enough to more than cancel every small win, leaving an average loss in line with the house edge.
What happens if I have an unlimited bankroll?
No real table offers an unlimited bankroll or an unlimited maximum bet, so the question stays theoretical. With real limits, the doubling is always cut off at some point, and that is where the accumulated losses land.
How many losses in a row should I expect?
Longer runs than most players expect. Betting red on every spin, our flat betting sessions saw a longest losing run of 6.2 spins on average, and one session lost 24 in a row. The Martingale rarely survives to see a run like that: from a base bet of 5, six losses in a row cost 315 points and call for a 320 point bet next, more than the 185 points left of a 500 point budget. That is how 50.1% of its sessions ran out of points.
Test it yourself
Open the Strategy Simulator tab in the app with Martingale already selected and watch it play on the live table with virtual points: its chips on the felt, the wheel spinning, its points rising or falling round by round.
The app's cards measure every system on the spins your own table has dealt, with a larger budget and longer sessions, so their figures will not match this page. The edge is the same in both.