Fibonacci roulette strategy test: 100,000 sessions simulated
Does the Fibonacci roulette strategy work? We simulated 100,000 sessions on a single zero wheel to show the win rate, how often the bankroll empties, and the real average result.
At a glance, from 100,000 simulated sessions
- Finished ahead
- 73.8%
- Ran out of points
- 23.0%
- Average result
- -29.3 points
What it is and how it works
The Fibonacci walks up the sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 and so on after each loss, and steps back two places after each win. Stakes are that sequence multiplied by your base unit.
It climbs more slowly than doubling, so it survives longer, but it is still a loss chasing progression and it still ends at the edge of your bankroll.
A simple example at a base bet of 5
- Bet 5 (1 unit). It loses.
- Bet 5 (1 unit). It loses.
- Bet 10 (2 units). It loses.
- Bet 15 (3 units). It wins, returning 30, and the sequence steps back two places to 5.
What our simulation shows
We ran 100,000 sessions of this system against a fair single zero wheel, each session lasting up to 100 spins, starting with 500 virtual points and a base bet of 5. Those are the amounts the app's Strategy Simulator tab starts with; there a run has no round limit, and goes on until you stop it, the points set aside run out or the table refuses its next bet. A session here ends early if the bankroll can no longer cover the next required bet.
| Sessions simulated | 100,000 |
|---|---|
| Sessions that finished ahead | 73.8% |
| Sessions that finished level | 0.3% |
| Sessions that finished behind | 25.9% |
| Sessions that ran out of points | 23.0% |
| Average result per session | -29.3 points |
| Typical (median) result | +75 points |
| Average total staked in a session | 1,071.6 points |
| Loss predicted by the house edge | 29 points |
| Best session seen | +245 points |
| Worst session seen | -440 points |
| Average longest run of losing spins | 6 |
| Longest run of losing spins seen | 9 |
Read that table slowly. The share of sessions finishing ahead is often the number that sells a system, and on its own it is misleading: what matters is the average result, which includes the sessions that went badly.
Why this system cannot overcome the house edge
A single zero wheel has 37 pockets. An even money bet such as red wins on 18 of them and loses on 19, so every point you stake returns 36 of 37 points on average. That is a loss of 2.7027% of everything staked, and it applies to every single bet no matter what size it is or what order the bets come in.
Our simulation shows this directly. Across 100,000 sessions this system staked an average of 1,071.6 points per session. Applying the edge to that amount predicts a loss of 29 points. The simulation actually produced an average of -29.3 points.
The staking pattern changed how the wins and losses were spread out. It did not change the total. That is the whole story of every betting system: they move risk around, and nothing more.
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
- It rises more gently than the Martingale, so a losing run takes longer to become critical.
- Stepping back two places after a win recovers ground without resetting all the way.
Weaknesses
- It still climbs without limit during a bad run, and the later numbers get large quickly.
- A win does not always recover the whole run, unlike the Martingale, so the ground gained can be uneven.
Who it might suit
The Fibonacci suits players who want a progression with a slower burn than doubling and who like following a defined sequence. It is a pacing method, not a way to come out ahead.
Common questions
Does the Fibonacci roulette strategy work?
It finishes a large share of sessions slightly ahead, which is why it is popular. Our 100,000 session simulation shows that the sessions where the sequence climbs too far more than cancel those small wins, leaving an average loss in line with the house edge.
Is the Fibonacci safer than the Martingale?
It escalates more slowly, so the bankroll survives longer and busts less often in our data. It also stakes a great deal over a long run, and the edge applies to every point of it.
Test it yourself
Open the Strategy Simulator tab in the app with Fibonacci already selected and watch it play on the live table with virtual points: its chips on the felt, the wheel spinning, its points rising or falling round by round.
The app's cards measure every system on the spins your own table has dealt, with a larger budget and longer sessions, so their figures will not match this page. The edge is the same in both.