Flat betting in roulette: 100,000 sessions simulated
We simulated 100,000 sessions of flat betting on red on a single zero wheel. See the real win rate, the average result, and why a level stake still loses to the house edge.
At a glance, from 100,000 simulated sessions
- Finished ahead
- 35.6%
- Ran out of points
- 0.0%
- Average result
- -13.6 points
What it is and how it works
Flat betting is the simplest approach there is: you stake the same amount on the same kind of bet every round, whatever happened before. Nothing goes up after a loss and nothing goes down after a win.
It is the baseline every other system should be measured against. If a system cannot beat a flat stake over a long run, its progression is only moving points around.
A simple example at a base bet of 5
- Bet 5 on red. It loses.
- Bet 5 on red again. It loses.
- Bet 5 on red again. It wins, returning 10.
- The next bet is still 5. The size never reacts to the result.
What our simulation shows
We ran 100,000 sessions of this system against a fair single zero wheel, each session lasting up to 100 spins, starting with 500 virtual points and a base bet of 5. Those are the amounts the app's Strategy Simulator tab starts with; there a run has no round limit, and goes on until you stop it, the points set aside run out or the table refuses its next bet. A session here ends early if the bankroll can no longer cover the next required bet.
| Sessions simulated | 100,000 |
|---|---|
| Sessions that finished ahead | 35.6% |
| Sessions that finished level | 7.7% |
| Sessions that finished behind | 56.8% |
| Sessions that ran out of points | 0.0% |
| Average result per session | -13.6 points |
| Typical (median) result | -10 points |
| Average total staked in a session | 500 points |
| Loss predicted by the house edge | 13.5 points |
| Best session seen | +200 points |
| Worst session seen | -210 points |
| Average longest run of losing spins | 6.2 |
| Longest run of losing spins seen | 24 |
Read that table slowly. The share of sessions finishing ahead is often the number that sells a system, and on its own it is misleading: what matters is the average result, which includes the sessions that went badly.
Why this system cannot overcome the house edge
A single zero wheel has 37 pockets. An even money bet such as red wins on 18 of them and loses on 19, so every point you stake returns 36 of 37 points on average. That is a loss of 2.7027% of everything staked, and it applies to every single bet no matter what size it is or what order the bets come in.
Our simulation shows this directly. Across 100,000 sessions this system staked an average of 500 points per session. Applying the edge to that amount predicts a loss of 13.5 points. The simulation actually produced an average of -13.6 points.
The staking pattern changed how the wins and losses were spread out. It did not change the total. That is the whole story of every betting system: they move risk around, and nothing more.
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
- The stake never runs away from you, so a bad run costs exactly what you expect.
- Like Paroli and Reverse D'Alembert, it never ran out of points in our simulations.
- It gives the longest playing time for a given bankroll.
Weaknesses
- It offers no mechanism at all for recovering a losing run.
- The result is almost entirely down to the wheel, which some players find dull.
Who it might suit
Flat betting suits anyone who wants the longest possible session from a set number of points, and anyone who wants an honest yardstick to compare the other systems against.
Common questions
Is flat betting better than the Martingale?
Neither one changes the house edge. In our simulations flat betting lost less on average simply because it stakes far less overall, and it never runs out of points from its own progression. The Martingale wins more sessions but pays for it with rare, very large losses.
Does flat betting reduce the house edge?
No. A single zero wheel keeps 1 point of every 37 staked no matter how you size your bets. Flat betting simply stakes less in total, so the same percentage applies to a smaller number.
Test it yourself
Open the Strategy Simulator tab in the app with Flat bet on red already selected and watch it play on the live table with virtual points: its chips on the felt, the wheel spinning, its points rising or falling round by round.
The app's cards measure every system on the spins your own table has dealt, with a larger budget and longer sessions, so their figures will not match this page. The edge is the same in both.