Flat betting vs Martingale: 200,000 simulated roulette sessions
Flat betting and Martingale compared with real numbers: 100,000 simulated sessions each on a single zero wheel. Win rates, bust rates, worst sessions, and why neither beats the house edge.
At a glance, from 100,000 simulated sessions each
| System | Finished ahead | Ran out of points | Average result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat betting | 35.6% | 0.0% | -13.6 |
| Martingale | 49.2% | 50.1% | -31.1 |
The two systems in one breath
Flat betting: Flat betting is the simplest approach there is: you stake the same amount on the same kind of bet every round, whatever happened before. Nothing goes up after a loss and nothing goes down after a win.
Martingale: The Martingale doubles the stake after every loss and resets to the starting stake after every win. The idea is that one win recovers every loss in the run and adds one unit of profit on top.
The numbers side by side
| Flat betting | Martingale | |
|---|---|---|
| Sessions that finished ahead | 35.6% | 49.2% |
| Sessions that ran out of points | 0.0% | 50.1% |
| Average result per session | -13.6 points | -31.1 points |
| Typical (median) result | -10 points | -185 points |
| Worst session seen | -210 points | -500 points |
| Average total staked | 500 points | 1,159.7 points |
| Loss predicted by the edge | 13.5 points | 31.3 points |
The honest verdict
Neither system beats the house edge, and the table shows it twice. Each system's average loss sits next to the loss the edge predicts from its own staking (13.5 points for Flat betting, 31.3 points for Martingale): the wheel took its 1 in 37 of everything each system staked, and nothing more or less.
What actually differs is the shape of the risk. Martingale finished ahead more often (49.2% against 35.6%) and also emptied its bankroll more often (50.1% against 0.0%). Flat betting lost less on average (-13.6 points against -31.1 points), mostly because it staked less in total. Choosing between them is choosing which kind of bad day you prefer, not which one wins.
Common questions
Which is better, Flat betting or Martingale?
Neither, by expectation: both averaged a loss in line with the house edge applied to what they staked (Flat betting -13.6 points, Martingale -31.1 points per session). They differ in risk shape. Martingale finished ahead more often (49.2% against 35.6%) and also ran out of points more often (50.1% against 0.0%). Pick, if at all, by which bad day you would rather have.
Can I combine two systems to beat the wheel?
No. Any mix of two systems is still a sequence of bets on a wheel that keeps 1 point in 37 staked, so the combination changes the shape of your results, never their long run average. That is exactly what our side by side numbers show for each system alone.
Run both yourself
The Strategy Simulator tab in the app plays either system on the live table with virtual points, chip by chip. Watch each one's bad day happen instead of taking our word for it.
The app's cards measure every system on the spins your own table has dealt, with a larger budget and longer sessions, so their figures will not match this page. The edge is the same in both.